Singapore: A year to cooling the property market?
Launched in July last year property cooling measures has been nearly a year since its launch. In the past year, while private Buy Fang Qiang dropped nearly in half, but prices fell by just 0.3%, while developers have also failed to slow the pace of home sales.
In the second half of this year, the market is expected to have at least 14 new private projects, up to a total of up to 5655 units.
This round of cooling measures are to affect sales of new homes? A trade war with China and the United States warming and macroeconomic environment of heightened risk in the near future, these measures would still be adjusted?
Lianhe Zaobao invited several real estate analysts to discuss range of issues of concern to investors.
Markets in the second half of this year, at least 14 are expected to debut a new private projects, including a two thousand units on large projects. Analysts believe that developers must be based on market sentiment improved sales strategies, in order to stand out from the competition.
These new homes with a five, in a project with more than 500 units, mostly in large projects launched in the third quarter.
One Pearl Bank at Outram Park and Bukit Timah Road, Midwood @ Hillview are on the Rise on a smaller scale, and there were 774 and 564 units.
Since July last year, a new round of property cooling measures, after the launching of a substantial slowdown in sales of homes. The government must establish new homes in five years, so that all units when it was sold to developers of large projects in the face of enormous pressure.
However, head of research at Colliers International mention that there will be demand for iconic project such as One Pearl Bank.
She accepted Lianhe Zaobao pointed out during his visit, according to the Urban Renewal Authority data, in the first quarter of this year have a 36,839 unfinished or unsold private units.
If every year to 9,000 units, sold out in five years all units sold is possible, but developers still shouldn’t be taken lightly.
While we do not believe that excess supply, but if the same areas, there are two projects at the same time, it will be rolled out in the face of intense competition and the developer was able to project features or price to competition.
A permanent lease project is a big selling point:
The private project lease period is one of the main selling points, senior manager of global research at high latitudes Huang Xian Yang believes that permanent lease project attractive to buyers is great.
The month of May’s best selling Amber Park and Parc Komo family are permanently lease project.
The senior director of Jones Lang LaSalle research and consulting Teddy were of the view that the excess supply of homes, the developer must put the sales pitch on the price.
The supply of homes and land supply, has a close relationship over the past two years, collective sales market for developers to provide a lot of new development, a great lot Music gales boom. However, the current private demand has slowed, the developer Music gales purchase market through the number of sales has decreased significantly, set in a weak market conditions.
If only in terms of future use Hyde building (Realty Centre) Music gales of success. It is now a commercial building, but its purpose is to develop an integrated project, which is mainly thanks to the central business district to incentive schemes. It can also be used as replacements for additional twenty-five per cent of total volume ratio. ”
She expects the second half of this year, markets remain weak Music gales, but the trend is likely to rebound next year, as the government sold the site, but much of the land developer stocks also have fast running out.
Given the fast rising house prices in July 2018, the government suddenly announced a new round of cooling measures. In addition to buying first homes Singapore citizens and permanent residents, other buyers to pay the additional stamp duty for buyers (ABSD) always increase of five percentage points. In addition, the government for the first time ABSD. for developers to launch new measures to bring the business to buy residential real estate (including land) Abs.d. raised to 15 of the 25, plus a five per cent of stamp duty cannot be returned.
Since this round of cooling measures, after the launch of private Buy Fang Qiang fell nearly half, from the second quarter of last year’s 7186 units, down to the first quarter of this year’s 3743 units, a drop of 48% in private prices, as well as in the past two quarters, despite continuous decline, but so far only slumped 0.3%, largely remained steady.
State Development Minister Juan through fiscal accepted a television interview last month, Bloomberg noted that since the launch of cooling measures are having an effect, prompting local real estate cycle stabilized.
However, wearing yuysyan industries (Edmund Tie & Company) research directors Zhang Yaoqiang believes that this round of measures the government could achieve “consolidation and restructuring market cycle” purposes, but the results, it’s actually worse than the last round.
In an interview with The Lianhe Zaobao, noted that the launch of the last round of measures when Buy Fang Qiang fell more than half of homes, house prices are falling for three years, the longest since the fall of 1975, “by contrast, in July of last year cooling measures, although curbed collective sales market is hot, but the market seems to be more resilient, there is no significant fluctuations.”
He also believes that, despite the cooling measures, but home prices should be steady. This is because developers before the collective sales boom in the purchase of expensive homes, which makes it difficult to sell at a discount, and developers can hold strong, more inclined to maintain prices, rather than to a dumping units.
As Singapore family incomes increase, that both Zhang Yaoqiang occupied or for investment purposes, private demand will gradually increase.
He cited Singapore Bureau of Statistics data pointed out that by the end of 2018, China had 178,000 household monthly income of more than 20000 yuan, the data since 2009, the average annual increase of 10,000 households.
Unsold units to a six year high
Teddy, it cooling measures may not have led to a significant drop in house prices, but now the housing cycle, but implied greater crisis.
However, in a downward cycle of 2013-2017 property market cycle, compared to the more serious threats we face, particularly trade war led to a slowdown in economic growth and external environmental degradation. If this potential crisis continues to deepen, it will trigger a sharp drop in house prices. ”
In addition to external economic turmoil, a local real estate market also was believed to lie low for a “bomb” – private oversupply. According to the Urban Renewal Authority data, currently receive planning approval, but the private residence of unsold flats 38710 A, for the first quarter of 2013, six years since the highs.
Relaxation of cooling measures would be more challenging
Shenzhen Loong Shi bangwei research directors Richard Ellis pointed out that the cooling measures since last year, there were about 40 new private projects, has not launched any one item sold out, so the case against him is “rare.”
According to analysts, data from the past year, a new private projects sales rates ranging from 0.9% and 79% of the project is the best – selling Park Colonial, has sold nearly 638 units.
Although the market has a large supply of homes, and, more recently, demand for homes is also seems to be back in May, sales of new homes going up about San Chengzhi 952 units, the prices of some popular items also rose slightly.
Cooling measures since last July, in the past year since the launch of best selling private projects are Yingya court (Park Colonial), has sold nearly Eight chengdom 638 flats. (CEL Unique Development provided)
Some analysts said that after a year of “shocks” measures to cool the property market has now settled down, a lot of buyers are even beginning to take measures to cool the property market as the new normal. In the US real estate group